In early 2024, the European Commission proposed a 90% emissions reduction target for the year 2040 in reference to the year 1990. Achieving this target largely relies on the deployment of distributed renewable generation. Currently the deployment of renewable capacity is mostly focusing on resource-rich areas with the highest capacity factors, not taking into account the grid topology. This can lead to a mismatch in the system, as those areas where renewable generation is focused do not necessarily align with where demand is located. The need to transmit the generated electricity inside a given zone could therefore regularly exceed the available grid capacity.

Our results suggest that this uncoordinated deployment will massively increase the need for redispatch – adjusting generator schedules after the market has cleared to achieve a physically feasible dispatch – as grids will be more and more constrained and incapable to fully transmit all available renewable electricity. In this way, up to 310 TWh of renewable generation could be curtailed due to limitations in the grid in 2040 in a business-as-usual grid expansion scenario, The need for redispatch could be further worsened by an inefficient operation and siting of electrolysers.