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JRC Smart Electricity Systems

Holistic evaluation of demand response events in real pilot sites: from baseline calculation to evaluation of Key Performance Indicators


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Explicit demand response plays a significant role in the future energy grid transition, as it involves end consumers in smart grid activities and, at the same time, exploits the potential of flexibility, giving the opportunity to grid operators to accommodate a total amount of energy without the need to reinforce the grid infrastructure. For evaluating the successfulness of a demand response program, thus, evaluating its advantages, it is fundamental to have an accurate baseline curve consumption along with meaningful key performance indicators. In this work, we propose a novel way of calculating the baseline consumption using artificial intelligence techniques. In particular, regression models have been applied to a database of historical data. In order to present a complete evaluation of demand response programs, we present five key performance indicators (KPIs). The KPIs have been selected so as to depict the successfulness of the explicit demand response program. We suggest a novel way of evaluating two of the five KPI using a quantitative approach. The presented results complete the picture of evaluating a real-life demand response program and show the effectiveness of the selected approach. The proposed schemes for baseline calculation and KPI evaluation can be used by the scientific community for evaluating future demand response programs, especially in the residential sector.